Posts by Yan Bibiyan

33

How squeamish are you?

by Gregor in

jw
friends

lets say you are enjoying a glass of good red wine while preparing dinner.

you pick up your glass for a sip and see a gnat floating on top.

1. pour the whole thing in the sink and pour a fresh one.. 2. pick out the gnat and drink the wine.. 3. ignore it and drink the wine and the gnat.. i am a 2. i have done a 3 and it didn't spoil my appetite.. .

Yan Bibiyan

There is a fair amount if "gnat" interjection in the wine making process. Whether you realize it or not, you are all #3

-Yan

9

What Are the Odds of YOU Reading This Today?

by Yan Bibiyan in

jws, as well as other creationists as far as i know, use the argument that the odds of life starting on its own, from a mere mix of chemicals are beyond the mathematically acceptable limits and therefore life must have been designed by a higher being.

my study conductor, a window washer by trade (no, really, this is not a jab at the guys choice of making a living) told me that those odds were calculated to be beyond 1:1x10100and statistically anything over 1:1x1050is considered impossible.

i can understand the odds.

Yan Bibiyan

how does that discredit his logic? To me it furthers his point...

zannahdoll,

It shows that the odds for a future event can not be applied retroactively for a similar event that has already occurred in the past.

There is 1:1.05x10 63 chance that a particular child will be born if two known couples got together today, produced one offspring each (obviously of a different sex) and their offspring produced one offspring. The chances of that grandchild being a particular child (i.e. the outcome of a random possible selection) are beyond the statistically acceptable possibility. Yet, if the family tree progressed as planned, there will be an offspring two generations down, whose chances of being there were statistically impossible at the beginning of the process.

You can't dismiss the possibility that something occurred in the past, just because statistically it has no chance of occurring in the future.

-Yan

9

What Are the Odds of YOU Reading This Today?

by Yan Bibiyan in

jws, as well as other creationists as far as i know, use the argument that the odds of life starting on its own, from a mere mix of chemicals are beyond the mathematically acceptable limits and therefore life must have been designed by a higher being.

my study conductor, a window washer by trade (no, really, this is not a jab at the guys choice of making a living) told me that those odds were calculated to be beyond 1:1x10100and statistically anything over 1:1x1050is considered impossible.

i can understand the odds.

Yan Bibiyan

zannahdoll,

I see the problem.

"YOU reading this" was meant to be ANYONE reading it. YOU is just an expression of ANYONE being the unique human being they are. "YOU reading this" is a testament that YOU exist, and ANYONE exists to that effect. Clearly the odds, as appllied by creationists, show that YOU or ANYONE won't be here today to read it...

Hope this clears matters.

Welcome to the board, BTW!

-Yan

9

What Are the Odds of YOU Reading This Today?

by Yan Bibiyan in

jws, as well as other creationists as far as i know, use the argument that the odds of life starting on its own, from a mere mix of chemicals are beyond the mathematically acceptable limits and therefore life must have been designed by a higher being.

my study conductor, a window washer by trade (no, really, this is not a jab at the guys choice of making a living) told me that those odds were calculated to be beyond 1:1x10100and statistically anything over 1:1x1050is considered impossible.

i can understand the odds.

Yan Bibiyan

zannahdoll,

As I stated, my intent was not to give the answers about Abiogenesis. I neither have the knowledge or frankly the wits to even touch that subject from a scientific perspective. Heck, even science itself is in its infancy in that field. My posts merely points out that an approach used by creationists - applying statistics backwards, nullifies anyone's existence today.

As to putting the YOU to a particular person, even if I am biased and wrong by several orders of magnitude, say 1 million, this only shaves off 6 zeroes from the equation and will quickly be negated by the exponential growth of zeroes in going back just one generation.

pirata, thank you.

-Yan

9

What Are the Odds of YOU Reading This Today?

by Yan Bibiyan in

jws, as well as other creationists as far as i know, use the argument that the odds of life starting on its own, from a mere mix of chemicals are beyond the mathematically acceptable limits and therefore life must have been designed by a higher being.

my study conductor, a window washer by trade (no, really, this is not a jab at the guys choice of making a living) told me that those odds were calculated to be beyond 1:1x10100and statistically anything over 1:1x1050is considered impossible.

i can understand the odds.

Yan Bibiyan

JWs, as well as other creationists as far as I know, use the argument that the odds of life starting on its own, from a mere mix of chemicals are beyond the mathematically acceptable limits and therefore life must have been designed by a higher being.

My study conductor, a window washer by trade (no, really, this is not a jab at the guy’s choice of making a living) told me that those odds were calculated to be beyond 1:1x10100and statistically anything over 1:1x1050is considered impossible. I can understand the odds. For example, the 5 billion years our precious planet has been in existence translates to “only” 1.5768x1017 seconds…We have a long way to go to anything x1050

So what are the chances that YOU, not your full blooded or half sibling or even your identical twin, are reading this today?

Let’s make a simple calculation.

We will assume that your parents already know each other and are planning to start a family with one child – YOU.

On average, children are born within a 15 year time window (age difference between oldest and youngest). In some developing countries the window is wider, in others narrower, but 15 years is a good starting point.

There are 180 months in 15 years and therefore ideally180 possible fertile eggs on the femile side of the equation. An egg is fertile for about 3 days during ovulation.

During intercourse (at ejaculation), the male counterpart “deposits” no less than 20-50 million sperm. Let’s be really conservative and say only 3 million made it in any shape, way or form to be able to fertilize the egg. Time that by 3 for the 3 most likely days of this to happen and by the 180 times this can happen overt the 15 years of family growth and you have:

3,000,000 x 3 x 180 = 1.62 billion

So the odds of YOU being YOU with the same parents are less that 1:1.5x109

Congratulations!! YOU have overcome some pretty tough odds.

But….

In order for YOU to be YOU, your parents have to have been THEM. Their odds of being THEM are no better than 1:1.5x109 EACH!!!

If we apply the same ideal scenario as above, YOUR odds of being YOU have now diminished to only

3 x (1:1.5x109 ) = 1:4.5x1027 !!!

Shall we take this one level deeper?

There are 4 grandparents required for YOU to be here today, each with their own 1:1.5x109 odds of being THEM.

Going back only 2 generations have put the odds of YOU being YOU to an astonishing

7 x (1:1.5x109 ) = 1:1.05x1063

1:1.05x10 63 , way beyond the statistically acceptable threshold of possibility….

Yet, YOU are here today reading this!

Shall we attempt to apply the math for the 24,000+ generations of the “6,000 year human existence on Earth”? I think not.

What gives?

The above is an illustration where the same logic used by creationists to dismiss the possibility of life somehow starting on its own, rules them out of existence today.

Those odds CAN NOT be applied retroactively. This is where the notion of using odds to dismiss Abiogenesis fails miserably.

Please note that this is not an attempt to disprove creationist’s views and beliefs, it only illustrates the misuse of one more tool in the process.

-Yan

17

I find it curious that these two look so much alike.... hehe

by AK - Jeff in

.

Yan Bibiyan

Nah,

Russell is sporting a better neckware and has a tad more hair - hence, therefore, evidently, thus and by extension he must have the right understanding..

52

Great refutation of Watchtower's "Origin of Life" and "Was Life Created?" brochures

by Third Eye Open in

link: http://www.mediafire.com/?fzjmfambyro0fof.

the essay linked above was written specifically to address the new creationist brochures that were put out by the watchtower at this year's district convention.

the goals of the essay are the following:.

Yan Bibiyan

Excellent piece!!!

If nothing else, as a minimum, one should be able to better understand how science and scientists work and the pragmatic approach in which science in general operates.

Third eye, if you were the author, hats off. If not, hats off to the person who wrote it and definitely credit to you for bringing it to our attention.

-Yan

21

R.I.P Daniel

by Mattieu in

every time i hear the following song by elton john, i have to pull over and shed a tear or two or twenty and think of all the other people like me who lost a brother whose name was daniel.... my brother daniel would have turned 40 today august 6 (southern hemisphere time).. i sadly lost daniel when i was 5 and he was 4 .... i still have vivid memories and photographs, yet sadly due to the religion that is called the jehovahs witnesses have not yet fully grieved or coped with my younger brothers death in a road accident.

i have never spoken to anyone outside my family about daniels death as i was raised up with the view that as a young person i would witness any day now the resurrection of my dear little brother.

not a week goes by when i do not visit his gravesite at fawkner cemetary looking for closure or the fact that i may never see him in the new system.

Yan Bibiyan

Mattieu,

Very touching. Sorry for the loss of your brother.

I also have a brother named Daniel, and although he is alive and well, we have grown distant over time. Your post reminded me of how we should cherish and appreciate what we have and how precious life and family are...

Thank you!

-Yan

7

Examining The Scriptures Daily ( ...well, if we don't sue you)

by Yan Bibiyan in

we know of numerous instances when the borg goes after 'apostate" inspired quoting of their own materials.. looks like they are bitchy about the ones with good intentions too.

didn't they want the message to be preached "all over the inhabited earth"?.

http://examiningthescripturesdaily.blogspot.com/.

Yan Bibiyan

We know of numerous instances when the borg goes after 'apostate" inspired quoting of their own materials.

Looks like they are bitchy about the ones with good intentions too. Didn't they want the message to be preached "all over the inhabited earth"?

http://examiningthescripturesdaily.blogspot.com/

19

Crane accident at KH in Victoria, BC Canada

by OnTheWayOut in

i never saw this on jwn, either i missed it or it wasn't here, so i post.. this is a recent story (july 27) and a follow-up on the second video:.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdg5f43c2pe.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waz_stctt5k&feature=related.

Yan Bibiyan

Given their all-out obsession with "preaching the word", wouldn't it be better to pay worldly people to build this junk and let the JWs be in field service?

As it was explained to me in the process of attempted indoctrination: "we can afford to have them professionally built, but we are not just building buildings, we are building Christians. We will need the skills in the new system".

What a load of crap. I am sure these exact words were fed to my drone study conductor by the upper chain...

-Yan